Business sectors
Five emerging business sectors in Oman's future
The quick read: Oman's next business map is forming around green energy, logistics, digital services, tourism, and value-added industry. The useful test is whether each sector has targets, capital, owners, and current readings behind it.
Sector map
The five sectors, at a glance
Green energy and hydrogen
Seven active hydrogen developments now target about 1 million tonnes a year by 2030.
Logistics and trade corridors
Transport and storage contributed RO 2.35 billion to GDP in 2025.
Digital economy and AI
The public target is 10 percent of GDP by 2040, but the latest share is not publicly specified.
Tourism and heritage
Inbound visitors reached 1.04 million in Q1 2026, up 7 percent year on year.
Advanced industry and minerals
Manufacturing value added reached RO 3.710 billion at constant prices in 2025.
Oman's future business story is no longer a simple oil to non-oil slogan. The official 2024-2025 Vision 2040 report says the non-oil share of GDP reached 72.5 percent by the end of 2024, the highest rate recorded for non-oil sectors, while the 2040 target remains 91.6 percent. That gap is where the next business map sits: green energy, logistics, digital services, tourism, and value-added industry. The useful question is not whether these sectors sound promising. It is whether targets, capital, institutions, and recent readings show actual movement. (Oman Vision 2040 Report 2024-2025)
Key Takeaways
- Green energy has the clearest export ambition. Oman is targeting 1 million to 1.5 million tonnes of green hydrogen a year by 2030, while Hydrom's latest official update said seven active developments now represent about 1 million tonnes a year of targeted production. (Ministry of Energy and Minerals)
- Logistics has moved from strategy language into measurable sector output. Transport and storage contributed RO 2.35 billion to GDP in 2025, up from RO 2.23 billion in 2024, and investment rose to RO 3.4 billion. (Ministry of Finance)
- Digital economy is important but harder to verify. Oman has a public target to raise digital economy contribution to 10 percent of GDP by 2040 from 2 percent in 2021, but a newer official GDP-share reading was not publicly specified. (Ministry of Transport, Communications and Information Technology)
- Tourism has volume momentum. NCSI's latest tourism indicators show 1.04 million inbound visitors through March 2026, up 7 percent from the same period in 2025, while the long-run visitor target is 12 million by 2040. (NCSI tourism indicators, March 2026 PDF, Ministry of Heritage and Tourism)
- Advanced industry and minerals may be the least glamorous but most practical diversification file. Manufacturing grew 7.5 percent in 2024, foreign investment in manufacturing reached RO 2.489 billion by end-2024, and minerals investment reached RO 107 million. (Oman Vision 2040 Report 2024-2025)
The Scorecard: Target, Latest Reading, Change
| Sector | Target or policy direction | Latest public reading | Change since last comparable checkpoint |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green energy and hydrogen | 1 million to 1.5 million tonnes of green hydrogen a year by 2030. | Seven active developments targeting about 1 million tonnes a year. | The public pipeline is smaller than the earlier eight-project count, but one Duqm project is in physical construction. |
| Logistics | Use ports, free zones, roads, air cargo, and customs systems to make Oman a trade platform. | RO 2.35 billion GDP contribution in 2025. | Up 5.4 percent from RO 2.23 billion in 2024. |
| Digital economy | Raise digital economy contribution to 10 percent of GDP by 2040. | No newer official GDP-share reading was publicly specified. | The target is clear, but the public scorecard has not yet caught up with the policy ambition. |
| Tourism | Reach 12 million visitors by 2040. | 1.04 million inbound visitors through March 2026. | Up 7 percent from the same period in 2025. |
| Advanced industry and minerals | Raise non-oil value added through manufacturing, mining, downstream processing, and economic zones. | Manufacturing value added reached RO 3.710 billion at constant prices in 2025; manufacturing foreign investment reached RO 2.489 billion by end-2024. | Manufacturing value added rose 2.5 percent in 2025, while manufacturing FDI rose only slightly from RO 2.482 billion in 2023 to RO 2.489 billion in 2024. |
1. Green Energy and Hydrogen
This is the sector where Oman has made the largest international bet. Hydrom, the national green hydrogen orchestrator, states that Oman is targeting 1 million to 1.5 million tonnes of green hydrogen production a year by 2030, with later scaling toward much larger volumes by 2040 and 2050. The latest official Hydrom update said seven active developments remain in the portfolio, targeting about 1 million tonnes a year by 2030, after two legacy projects were concluded by mutual agreement. (Ministry of Energy and Minerals)
The sector also sits inside the wider Carbon Neutrality Program, where clean energy has to become an industrial pathway rather than only a climate commitment.
The delivery signal is mixed. On one side, the ACME green hydrogen and ammonia project at Duqm has moved into physical construction. OPAZ said the first phase targets 100,000 tonnes a year of green ammonia and 17,000 tonnes a year of green hydrogen, with an expected commercial operation date in the first quarter of 2027. (OPAZ) On the other side, Hydrom's project count has been reset downward, which is a reminder that hydrogen is still a bankability test, not just a land-allocation exercise.
The latest Vision 2040 report also puts the wider clean-energy investment base in view: renewable-energy investment reached about RO 533 million by end-2024, and two new green-hydrogen agreements in Dhofar added 682 square kilometres during the second international bidding round. (Oman Vision 2040 Report 2024-2025)
2. Logistics and Trade Corridors
Logistics is the most immediately legible business sector because it already has ports, free zones, airports, roads, and state operators. The Ministry of Finance said transport and storage contributed RO 2.35 billion to GDP in 2025, compared with RO 2.23 billion in 2024, while sector investment rose to RO 3.4 billion from RO 2.32 billion. The same release put the 2026 investment target at RO 3.57 billion. (Ministry of Finance)
What changed is not only the number. National Logistics Day 2026 produced 24 agreements and 9 initiatives, including port, warehouse, customs, trucking, and smart logistics tools. That does not make every agreement bankable, but it does show a wider operating system forming around the sector. (Ministry of Finance)
If you're tracking the investment side of the story, this sector sits directly inside the site's private-sector investment and international cooperation tracker, because logistics only becomes a diversification engine when it converts Oman's location into paid throughput, warehousing, re-export activity, and private jobs.
3. Digital Economy, AI, and Data Services
Oman's digital economy target is clear: MTCIT says the national program aims to raise the digital economy's contribution to GDP to 10 percent by 2040, from 2 percent in 2021. The ministry frames that as an economic target, not just an e-government target, covering platform businesses, data, telecoms, e-commerce, fintech, cloud services, cybersecurity, and emerging technologies. (MTCIT digital economy program)
The caveat is important: a newer official GDP-share reading for the digital economy was not publicly specified. That makes this sector easier to describe than to score. The delivery machinery is visible, though. The government digital transformation program reported 94 percent performance for 2024, and the Tahawul program links digital transformation to service simplification, national digital platforms, and business-facing systems. (Tahawul)
The private-sector side is beginning to show up in capital allocation. Oman Future Fund backed technology, AI, insurance, drone, and platform projects in 2024, while the Vision 2040 report notes a USD 100 million joint investment company with Jordan's Social Security Investment Fund targeting telecommunications, agriculture, tourism, pharmaceuticals, and logistics. (Oman Vision 2040 Report 2024-2025)
4. Tourism, Heritage, and Experience Businesses
Tourism has one of the clearest long-run demand targets. The Ministry of Heritage and Tourism says Oman is working toward 12 million visitors by 2040 and expanding tourism representation in China, Britain and Ireland, France, Spain, Latin-speaking markets, Singapore, Indonesia, and Thailand. (Ministry of Heritage and Tourism)
The latest volume signal is positive. NCSI's March 2026 tourism indicators show 1.04 million inbound visitors in the first quarter of 2026, up 7 percent from the same period in 2025. The same report shows March 2026 alone at 291,327 inbound visitors, down 5.2 percent from March 2025, so the quarterly gain is not a straight-line monthly improvement. (NCSI tourism indicators, March 2026 PDF)
The capital base is also larger than the visitor story alone suggests. The Vision 2040 report says total investment in existing and ongoing integrated tourism complex projects reached RO 10.664 billion by end-2024, with 26 licences granted for integrated tourism complexes. The same report says private-sector investment in heritage sites reached 21 sites by end-2024, compared with one in 2020. (Oman Vision 2040 Report 2024-2025)
5. Advanced Industry, Minerals, and Downstream Manufacturing
Oman's industrial future is less about one headline sector and more about clusters: minerals, metals, petrochemicals, food manufacturing, battery materials, green-energy components, data-centre infrastructure, and logistics-linked manufacturing. The Vision 2040 report says manufacturing grew 7.5 percent in 2024, while agriculture and fisheries grew 7.2 percent, including 11.8 percent growth in fisheries. (Oman Vision 2040 Report 2024-2025)
The investment reading is more uneven. Foreign investment in manufacturing reached RO 2.489 billion by end-2024, compared with RO 2.482 billion in 2023. That is only a small increase. Minerals investment reached RO 107 million by end-2024, and five new mining concession agreements were signed against a 2024 target of at least three. (Oman Vision 2040 Report 2024-2025)
The latest national accounts show why this file matters. NCSI's constant-price GDP key indicator shows non-petroleum activities at RO 28.703 billion in 2025, up 3.1 percent from 2024. Industrial activities reached RO 8.542 billion, up 2.4 percent, while manufacturing reached RO 3.710 billion, up 2.5 percent. (NCSI GDP at constant prices, 2025 PDF) The business opportunity is to turn those industrial gains into exportable value rather than low-margin assembly or raw mineral shipment.
Delivery Machinery: Who Is Supposed to Move This
The machinery is wider than a single ministry. Hydrom and the Ministry of Energy and Minerals own the hydrogen concession and energy-transition file. MTCIT owns the digital economy and logistics policy frame. The Ministry of Heritage and Tourism owns tourism promotion, licensing, and heritage-sector activation. OPAZ, Madayn, and free-zone operators control much of the land, infrastructure, and investor interface for industry, logistics, and manufacturing. Oman Investment Authority and Oman Future Fund provide part of the capital stack.
The Vision 2040 report shows this machinery becoming more concrete. Invest Oman localized 43 projects by mid-2025 with total value exceeding RO 2.251 billion. Oman Future Fund attracted about RO 885 million in approved projects during 2024 in partnership with international institutions. Cumulative investment in economic, free, and industrial zones reached RO 20.9 billion by end-2024. That is the practical test for the Economic Diversification Program: whether capital lands in operating sectors rather than staying at announcement level. (Oman Vision 2040 Report 2024-2025)
The delivery problem is coordination. A hydrogen project needs land, renewable power, water, ports, offtakers, grid links, and finance. A tourism project needs air connectivity, trained workers, local operators, land approvals, and environmental safeguards. A digital company needs cloud, data regulation, payment systems, skilled labour, and fast licensing. The machinery exists, but sector growth depends on whether these systems move together.
Risks, Bottlenecks, and Data Caveats
First, several sector targets are not matched by clean public quarterly scorecards. Digital economy share of GDP is the clearest example. The 2040 target and 2021 baseline are public, but a newer official share was not publicly specified.
Second, investment announcements are not the same as operating output. Hydrogen land awards, tourism-complex licences, and logistics agreements matter, but they need financial close, construction, workforce training, and customers before they become GDP, exports, or durable jobs.
Third, some readings are not directly comparable. Tourism visitor counts are monthly and quarterly, while tourism GDP contribution is reported through different statistical products. The Q1 2026 visitor gain is encouraging, but it does not prove higher tourism value added per visitor.
Fourth, the labour conversion test is still open. These sectors are valuable for Vision 2040 only if they create skilled private-sector roles for Omanis. The official report gives sector movement, but not a full public breakdown of Omani skilled employment created by each emerging sector.
Regional Comparison: UAE and Saudi Arabia
A clean sector-by-sector ranking against the UAE and Saudi Arabia would be too weak to state because the countries publish different metrics and operate at different scale. A narrower comparison is possible.
On digital economy, the UAE publishes a sharper benchmark: its strategy aims to double the digital economy's GDP contribution from 9.7 percent to 19.4 percent within ten years. Oman's target is 10 percent by 2040 from a 2 percent baseline in 2021, which means Oman is earlier in the buildout and needs a more regular public scorecard. (UAE Digital Economy Strategy, MTCIT)
On tourism, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are larger demand magnets. Saudi Arabia now targets 150 million annual visits by 2030 under Vision 2030, while the UAE Tourism Strategy 2031 targets AED 450 billion in tourism contribution to GDP and AED 100 billion in additional tourism investment. Oman's 12 million visitor target by 2040 is smaller, but that may fit its positioning around nature, heritage, adventure, and lower-density tourism. (Saudi Tourism Authority, UAE Tourism Strategy 2031, Ministry of Heritage and Tourism)
On hydrogen and logistics, the comparison is more about specialization than size. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have deeper balance sheets and larger domestic markets. Oman's opening is narrower: use land, renewables, ports, and location to build export-oriented niches where a mid-sized economy can compete.
Why This Matters for Oman
These five sectors matter because they are where Vision 2040 becomes visible to businesses and households. A higher non-oil GDP share is useful, but people feel diversification through jobs, supplier contracts, tourism income, logistics work, digital companies, local factories, and new investment outside the old oil cycle.
The strongest files today are the ones with public capital, named institutions, and current readings. Logistics and tourism are easiest to track. Hydrogen has ambition and early construction, but still faces a bankability test. Digital economy has a strong policy frame but needs a clearer public scorecard. Advanced industry and minerals have real movement, but the value-add question remains: Oman needs more processing, technology, and export depth, not just more sites and licences.
The next useful checkpoint is not another strategy launch. It is whether these sectors produce operating plants, higher sector value added, stronger Omani private-sector employment, and transparent data that lets the public see what is moving.