72.5%
Current official reading
Non-oil share of GDP in 2024.
Back to pillars and priorities
Priority lens
Is Oman heading toward a post-oil economy?
This priority asks the most direct question here: is Oman building a durable non-oil economy without reopening old balance-sheet risks?
83.9%
2030 target
Published public milestone for 2030.
80.2%
Projected 2030
Editorial projection based on the recent official pace and the broader delivery context.
Live tracker
Non-oil GDP share
This indicator is affected by both non-oil growth and the oil denominator, so strong oil years can flatten the share even when non-oil activity rises in absolute terms.
ActualProjectedTarget path
Current
72.5%
Non-oil share of GDP in 2024.
2030 target
83.9%
Published public milestone for 2030.
2040 target
91.6%
Second milestone carried in the official public material.
Projected 2030
80.2%
Editorial projection from the recent official pace and broader delivery context.
Supporting signals
The numbers sitting underneath the headline
Budget balance to GDP
1.8% surplus
The 2024 current-account and budget picture is still healthier than the stress years.
Gross debt to GDP
35.4%
Debt has kept trending down, giving policymakers room to fund transition priorities without reopening old balance-sheet risks.
Non-oil value added at constant prices
OMR 27.3bn
The constant-price series shows the real non-oil engine still moving even when the GDP share gets distorted by hydrocarbons.
Analysis
What the official data says
- Oman's latest official public reading puts the non-oil share of GDP at 72.5% in 2024, the strongest ratio cited in the current report set.
- The broader macro frame is not weak: the budget remained in surplus and gross public debt fell again, which means diversification is now being attempted from a position of balance-sheet strength rather than fiscal stress.
- The 2023-2024 report also shows non-oil activities at constant prices rising from OMR 23.7 billion in 2020 to OMR 27.3 billion in 2023, which is an important cross-check against the ratio-based headline.
Analysis
Inference and caveats
- The ratio is highly sensitive to the oil denominator. That is why 2022 can show weaker non-oil share performance even while the non-oil economy itself still expanded in absolute terms.
- The real policy question is not only whether the non-oil ratio rises, but whether the mix deepens into sectors that keep throwing off jobs, suppliers and exports even when oil prices normalise.
- Fiscal calm is buying Oman time. It is not the end result. Surplus years matter only if they are turned into productive capacity fast enough to narrow the gap to the 2030 and 2040 targets.
Analysis
What could move next
- If manufacturing, logistics, mining, agriculture and tourism keep compounding together, the non-oil line can keep climbing, but a move from the low 70s to the low 80s by 2030 still requires a meaningfully steeper pace than recent history.
- Expect the metric to remain noisy year to year because hydrocarbon prices still move the total-GDP base sharply.
- The healthier read to watch alongside this chart is whether non-oil value added, non-oil exports and private investment begin rising together instead of one metric carrying the headline alone.
Evidence table
Historical data points used in this chart
| Year | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 70.7% | Oman Vision 2040 Annual Report 2021 |
| 2019 | 73.1% | Oman Vision 2040 Annual Report 2021 |
| 2020 | 72.8% | Oman Vision 2040 Annual Report 2021 |
| 2021 | 78% | Oman Vision 2040 Annual Report 2021 |
| 2022 | 68.3% The 2022 report attributes the dip largely to the oil-price denominator effect. | Oman Vision 2040 Report 2022-2023 |
| 2024 | 72.5% | Oman Vision 2040 Report 2024-2025 |
Target frame
What Oman is trying to do
- Push non-oil GDP to 91.6 percent of total output by 2040.
- Keep the fiscal balance above the Vision 2040 floor while public debt stays manageable.
- Use diversification gains to make growth less exposed to oil-price cycles.
Current read
The shorter editorial read
- The latest official report confirms clear direction of travel on diversification, while the benchmark lens suggests even stronger recent non-oil momentum than the official snapshot alone shows.
- Budget performance and debt reduction are real strengths right now, which means the issue is no longer macro fragility first. It is whether Oman can translate macro stability into a deeper productive base.
- Manufacturing and agriculture were among the faster-growing sectors in the latest official cycle, which is encouraging because they create sturdier domestic spillovers than one-off capital inflows.
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