72.5%
Official 2024 non-oil GDP share
The 2040 destination is 91.6 percent, so the compounding job is still substantial.
Back to pillars and priorities
Pillar brief
A Competitive Economy
This is the growth and capital pillar: diversification, fiscal durability, private investment, labour-market throughput, and governorate-level development all have to line up here.
17%
Gross private investment as share of GDP
The 2024-2025 report places the 2040 target at 25 percent.
OMR 220m
Governorate development envelope
Regional buildout is now a visible budget line rather than a generic decentralisation slogan.
Target frame
What Oman is trying to do
- Shift the center of gravity away from hydrocarbon dependence and toward a diversified non-oil economy with deeper private-sector ownership.
- Raise private investment, improve export competitiveness, and widen the productive role of the governorates.
- Keep fiscal stability strong enough that growth does not come with renewed balance-sheet stress.
Current read
Where execution stands now
- Official and benchmark reads both show diversification moving in the right direction, but a low-70s to low-90s journey is still a decade-plus execution challenge, not a near-win.
- Manufacturing and agriculture were among the faster-growing non-oil sectors in the latest official report, which matters because those sectors create thicker domestic spillovers than headline trade alone.
- The same pillar also contains the hardest cross-dependency problem in the whole site: capital, skills, logistics, governance, and cities all need to move together or the gains stall.
Regional lens
How the UAE and Saudi files compare
UAE comparison
- The UAE has made the regional benchmark more explicit: GDP of AED 3 trillion by 2031, non-oil exports of AED 800 billion, and foreign trade of AED 4 trillion.
- Operation 300bn adds an industrial layer with a plan to lift industrial GDP from AED 133 billion to AED 300 billion by 2031.
Saudi comparison
- Saudi is pushing the same economic transition with larger numeric targets, including private-sector contribution to GDP at 65 percent and non-oil exports equal to 50 percent of non-oil GDP by 2030.
- That makes Oman competitive on macro stability but still smaller in target scale and industrial ambition.
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